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The price of gasoline and diesel could reach record highs in Romania and the rest of the European Union, and EU governments are preparing intervention mechanisms (excise tax cuts, temporary caps) to protect purchasing power, according to the general director of the Romanian Energy Employers' Federation, Daniel Apostol.
He points out that fear of what might happen to the Strait of Hormuz is recalculating the price of energy and risk faster than the actual destruction on the ground.
‘As of March 9, 2026, the price of oil has seen a violent rise: ‘European’ Brent crude oil has reached the 120 USD/barrel threshold, a doubling since the beginning of the year. Shipping companies are avoiding the area, and more than 250 ships are reported to be on standby in and out of the Gulf. The main cause: the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the imminent risk of closure of the Strait of Hormuz,’ Apostol said in an analysis at the request of AGERPRES.
He noted that analysts believe that ‘market psychology’ is currently the main governing factor, and that many of them see two possible diverging scenarios.
‘The first scenario is the high geopolitical risk scenario, which means a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the expansion of the conflict in Iran and physical disruptions to supplies. This scenario envisages an even bigger jump in the price of crude oil, to somewhere above $150 per barrel, fueled by the geopolitical ‘risk premium’. The second scenario is based on the accumulation of a global oversupply (US, Brazil, Guyana), a slowdown in Chinese demand, a resumption of OPEC+ production and a return and repositioning of the oil price to the 60-70 dollars per barrel range as an average for the whole year 2026, betting on global production outpacing demand’, the economic analyst explained.
